America's New Proxy War In The Balkans

The United States has supervised independence of Kosovo from Serbia against the wishes of the latter is expected to create a precedent for currently unrecognized states. Such a precedent would prioritise the self-determination of prospective states at the expense of the territorial integrity of the host state, thus stimulating separatism. The consequences of Kosovo independence are expected to involve territorial disputes in several unrecognized states in Eastern Europe.

Kosovo's Prime Minister Hashim Thaci announced a date for independence "will be made public very soon" claiming it would be "a good surprise, made fast in the coming days" though he did not specify when the announcement would be made. Kosovo's parliament is expected to adopt a statement of intent to proclaim independence on February 17. Serbia has responded to plans for independence by passing a resolution threatening to cut ties with any nations that recognize Kosovo and possibly halt membership talks with the European Union and rule out membership in NATO. Serbia's president Boris Tadic also threatened to send the Serbian army to protect Kosovo Serbs if they came under attack. Chief of General Staff of the Serbian Army said independence and a declaration of a state of emergency would not mean enhancing military engagement on the part of the Serbian Army or an operation. He also said he received no orders to mobilize the army in the event of independence. Serbia plans to bring any nation recognizing independence into the International Court.

In the event of a declaration of independence Deputy Prime Minister Božidar Đelić said on November 23rd Serbia "should be prepared for the worst case scenario," however Defense Ministry plans for reacting to an independence declaration were not revealed. Dušan Proroković, Serbia's state secretary with the Kosovo Ministry, has said an action plan for Kosovo has been made that involves establishing Serbian institutions to administrate Kosovo. An office set up in northern part of Kosovska Mitrovica will serve as part of a Serbian parallel government after Kosovo's independence.

The Albanian National Army is reportedly mobilizing its troops to send into the Serb majority regions in Northern Mitrovica and Northern Kosovo to protect Albanians once Kosovo declares its independence, though he would not reveal the size of the force. Reports say Northern Kosovo is already effectively part of Serbia with Serbian police sizing up everyone who cross the bridge over Ibar river into the Serb area of Mitrovica and posters of Serbian generals and politicians on several buildings. Some policemen are reported by Reuters to actually be undercover Serbian security forces and one told a reporter: "If they [Albanians] want to take the north by force, we'll defend ourselves. Serbs are ready."

Serbia's Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic warned "A Pandora's Box could open up there and cause partition of Kosovo, something Serbia does not want" referring to threats by some Kosovo Serbs to secede from Kosovo after a declaration of independence. In response to partition the Albanian National Army said they would "do everything to unify and protect our territories." To prevent a secession from Kosovo Germany has 500 troops and the U.S. has 200 troops stationed along the border.

As Kosovo will be partitioned, Prime Minister Agim Ceku has suggested Kosovo & Albanians in four other countries may want to unite with Albania.Nait Hasani, a member of the Kosovo government has also said Kosovo may try to unite with Albania. Hasani was quoted as saying to a Polish paper, "First there should be supervised independence as proposed by Ahtisaari. But it is known that Kosovo and Albania citizens are one nation who want to live in one state."

Kosovo's independence is another act in the Balkanization of former empires. But it creates principles which can only exacerbate problems in other countries. In place of acceptance of minority autonomy within a single state structure there will be fights to the bitter end between centralism and separatism.

President Bush received a hero's welcome in June of 2007 when he arrived in the Albanian capital of Tirana, a marked contrast from the protests that greeted the president on his summer'07 European tour. Mr. Bush was the first U.S. president to visit the country, where the "decider" was extremely popular for reasons made painfully apparent in the Last 72 hours.

Russia may have well been privy to such intelligence since, therein explaining the resumption of cold war like tensions with the West. This international engineering by a "Lame Duck" US President will assuredly contribute to the myriad of dilemmas facing the next Administration on the Foreign Policy front.

One man’s desire for such legacy is eerily reminiscent of the worst follies of the 20th century’s worst world leaders…Bush May be the first of the 21st…